If this ramp-up in production is not achieved for any reason (starting almost immediately) – either because the Saudi’s are not able to increase production by 1.1 million barrels per day on a sustained basis or because they choose not to do so or because the oil they can produce is not useable in the current world market – the EIA analysis shows quite clearly that all bets are off.
The world market is likely to be short by at least 125 to 150 million barrels of oil compared to the supply levels required to maintain world oil prices at barely tolerable levels.
As a result, EIA’s $ 55 per barrel price forecast effectively will be “out the window.”
Further, unless oil prices increase rapidly enough to reduce demand by more than 1 million barrels per day by the 4th quarter of this year, U.S. and worldwide commercial inventory levels are likely to begin falling at an alarming rate.
No one knows for sure how steep a price increase may be required to drive 125 to 150 million barrels of demand out of the market. But Goldman Sachs’ “Super-spike” price level of up to $ 105 per barrel, originally suggested as the high end of the range of the of the potential market clearing price in 2007, may not be out of the question for this year.
Tuesday, May 03, 2005
Oil may hit $100 and more, this year, according to "Reading Between the Lines in Crawford, Texas" by Andrew Weissman.
Posted by tiger red at 3:09 PM