Cold Winter

If a minor tropical storm can raise the price to record highs, imagine what a real disaster would do, a serious terrorist attack on refineries, for example, or who knows what.

CNN Money

Oil surged to a record high above $61 a barrel Wednesday as a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico fanned worries about refiners' ability to bolster fuel supplies ahead of next winter....

The energy crisis is going to get nasty I think more quickly than we can imagine. When things begin to break down the rate of break down always seems to accelerate. The most memorable examples that occurred in my lifetime were the collapses of Vietnam and of the Soviet Union.

Update:

Record oil prices may increase to $80 a barrel this year, options contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange show. Investors are speculating OPEC won't produce enough oil to compensate for any disruption to supplies.

From Bloomberg via Atrios

$100 a barrel anyone?

Birds of a feather

Once they get elected to the ruling class, most Democrats in Congress are more comfortable with their Republican colleagues than they are with their constituents, excluding, of course, rich contributors.

From the Atlanta Journal-Constitution via Kos

...Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean is trying to get voters to hold the Republican Party responsible for the "culture of corruption" he sees in Washington, but Dean is getting virtually no help from fellow Democrats in the House of Representatives....

...House Democrats are victims of "a kind of mindset that too often creeps in in Washington —to get along, go along," Bell said in a telephone interview from his law office in Houston. "There's not a more adversarial act you can take in the House than an ethics complaint, and some people just don't have the stomach for it."...

So, which is it? Are the Democrats more worried about being exposed as thieves themselves? Are they more concerned about protecting their Republican buddies from too much scrutiny?

Probably both and a desire for stability. Since our congressional Democrats are in such a comfortable spot the last thing they want to do is rock the boat. Things are good, they say to each other, let's leave them that way and go play golf.

Leaving the coop

From the NYT

An outbreak of bird flu among migratory waterfowl in China suggests the disease -- which could trigger a dangerous flu among people -- may be poised to spread to India, Australia, New Zealand and eventually Europe, scientists warn.

If the migrating birds carry the H5N1 flu virus beyond its current stronghold in southeast Asia, it could devastate poultry farms and raise the risk of a deadly flu pandemic in people, experts said....

...If a bird flu virus infects a person who also carries a human flu virus, the result could be a hybrid bug that passes easily from person to person. ''That's the spark that sets off the forest fire of a global pandemic, and that's what everyone is worried about,'' said flu expert Dr. William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University....

Lucky strike

Brother-in-law died Thursday afternoon. He was 51 and the cause was lung cancer. He shared custody of his 16 year old daughter. His 80 year old mother lived with him.

The plant where he worked for 26 years closed a while ago (three of my wife’s five brothers lost long held jobs through plant closings) and he finally found a job as a laborer at a defense contractor installation near here. He collapsed at work in March, refused to go home and finished the day. On the weekend he went to the ER (he did not have a regular doctor) and X-rays revealed the cancers. He opted for treatment, deteriorated over the next months but was lucid to the final hours, until great pain led to large amounts of morphine.

He may have noticed symptoms early enough to be more effectively treated, but he repressed the awareness. As time passed he likely thought he had waited too long and did not want to face the consequences. Maybe he secretly hoped that if he didn’t look at the problem it would go away. Whisky helped him avoid the issue. He smoked to the end.

Theirs and ours

From the BBC, via Gilliard.

Iranian officials on a visit to Belgium have upset their hosts by trying to ban alcohol from the lunch table and refusing to shake women's hands.
Belgium's parliament speaker, Herman De Croo, decided to cancel a lunch rather than hosting a meal with no wine.

Strict Islamic teaching instructs Muslims to avoid looking at alcohol, as well as to avoid drinking it.

Belgian Senate president Anne-Marie Lizin later cancelled talks with the visitors over the handshake issue.
From the BBC

"We tried to find a solution, but they held fast to their position of not wanting to shake her hand," spokesman Patrick Peremans said.

The Senate said the meeting with the 12-strong delegation had been called off because of the "continued refusal" of Ms Lizin's counterpart to shake her hand.

From The American Prospect's Tapped, via Atrios

Larry Diamond, a former senior adviser to the coalition government in Iraq and a current fellow at the Hoover Institution, lays out where America went wrong in Iraq in a piece in today's San Jose Mercury News:

....One young political appointee (a 24-year-old Ivy League graduate) argued that Iraq should not enshrine judicial review in its constitution because it might lead to the legalization of abortion....

No matter what the religion fundamentalists are all nut bags.

Train wreck 2 (avalanche)

From Juan Cole "Guest Opinion:Iraq Avalanche Unstoppable"

"The Iraq Avalanche Cannot be Stopped"

by Alan Richards

University of California Santa Cruz
Santa Cruz, CA
June 24, 2005

...There is a way, however, in which I am troubled by what I perceive as a tacit assumption--a very American assumption,--underlying most of the discussion. It seems to me that even "pessimists" are actually "optimists": they assume that there exists in Iraq and the Gulf some "solution", some course of action which can actually lead to an outcome other than widespread, prolonged violence, with devastating economic, political, and social consequences.

I regret to say that I think this is wrong. There is no "solution" to this mess; it is sometimes not possible to "fix" things which have been broken. I can see no course of action which will prevent widespread violence, regional social upheaval, and economic hammering administered by oil price shocks. This is why so many of us opposed the invasion of Iraq so strenuously in the first place! We thought that it would unleash irreversible adverse consequences for (conventionally defined) US interests in the region. I am very sorry to say that I still think we were right. ...

There is much more and this post, unsettling as it is, is worth following the link to Juan Cole's site and the few minutes it takes to read it.

The post ends with this paragraph:

So let me close where I began: I think it is delusional to imagine that there exists a "solution" to the mess in Iraq. From this perspective, the folly of Bush, Cheney and Company in invading Iraq is even worse than most informed observers of the region already think. Starting an avalanche is certainly criminal. It does not follow, however, that such a phenomenon can be stopped once it has begun.

Delusional to imagine there is a solution to the mess in Iraq and it is delusional to imagine there will be an easy way out of the consequences of our stupid reliance on oil. Rather than leading to a stable, imperial control of what oil remains in the ground, which is lot of the Bushista agenda, our actions in Iraq put our sources in greater jeopardy. Withdrawal from this addiction will not be pretty.

Train wreck

The railroad bridge is out. You see the bridge. You see the train rushing headlong toward disaster. You know the people on the train have no idea what’s ahead. If they do, maybe they think the engineer is so masterful he will make a miracle. They don’t know there is no masterful engineer; a crazed monkey is at the controls and it is already too late.

I didn’t watch the speech. But I am watching the train wreck. It is happening in slow motion but it is happening. It takes a long time to stop a train.

I plan to heat with wood and because I am old I plan to die before the process of foreclosure catches up.

Two fronts

I thought Taliban resistance in Afghanistan was well into its final throes stage.

From CBS/AP

...Concerns already have been on the rise that rebel attacks here have been escalating into a conflict on the scale of that in Iraq.

More than 660 people have been killed in Afghanistan since March —
including 465 suspected insurgents, 29 U.S. troops, 43 Afghan police and soldiers, and 125 civilians — a level unprecedented since the ouster of the Taliban in 2001....

Hunting liberals

David Neiwert puts Rove's recent remarks about Liberals/Democrats into a meaningful historical context.

From Neiwert's Orcinus

...This is how propaganda is supposed to work: Circulate ideas on the popular level first, perhaps disguised as "humor" or "edgy commentary," until they become part of a broadly popular "conventional wisdom." Seemingly "outrageous" ideas gradually gain broader acceptance, leveraging the populace toward the movement's agenda. Then, when these notions are enunciated at the official and most powerful levels of government, any outrage that might be voiced is easily ignored....

via Noutopia

Bird flu

Over population is not a stable state. There is always a correction. Maybe this time it will be Bird Flu.

From "Preparing for the Next Pandemic", New England Journal of Medicine

...An influenza pandemic has always been a great global infectious-disease threat. There have been 10 pandemics of influenza A in the past 300 years. A recent analysis showed that the pandemic of 1918 and 1919 killed 50 million to 100 million people,1 and although its severity is often considered anomalous, the pandemic of 1830 through 1832 was similarly severe — it simply occurred when the world's population was smaller. Today, with a world population of 6.5 billion — more than three times that in 1918 — even a relatively "mild" pandemic could kill many millions of people.

Influenza experts recognize the inevitability of another pandemic. When will it begin? Will it be caused by H5N1, the avian influenzavirus strain currently circulating in Asia? Will its effect rival that of 1918 or be more muted, as was the case in the pandemics of 1957 and 1968? Nobody knows. ...

And some other links

UK says bird flu "as grave a threat as terrorism"

The Flu Wiki

From the Birds

Clubs left in the closet

The public golf course a couple of miles down the hill from my house, in northeast Pennsylvania, has been mostly empty this summer, even more so than last year. I walked the course on Saturday with a friend and it was empty. A few years ago it was packed every rain-free weekend and crowded on weekdays. This is not a luxury club but it has four very attractive nines. You can golf in your blue jeans and a T shirt if you like. The course mainly attracts working class golfers, with a very large percentage coming from New Jersey and New York City, groups of cops and firemen for example, and industrial workers.

My impression, supported by years of driving by the course parking lots, was confirmed by club employees I met at the supermarket. “I don’t know where everyone went.” one said. “Golf is over” another said, “except for the luxury courses,” and then went on to cite a competing, slightly more upscale course that went bankrupt this year.

There could be a lot of reasons for the waning local interest in golf, but my guess is there are two basic reasons. One is economic. People are more worried about money than before. They can’t justify spending a $100 dollars a day on golf, counting expensive gas, food, beer and green fees. Many are also working longer hours than ever before and can’t blow off a Saturday on golf because there are more urgent demands on their time.

The other reason is attitude. People (in these mostly blue areas) seem less playful, tenser than they were in the peaceful, even joyous Clinton years. They are also more fearful of losing jobs, retirement, health benefits and so on and I think they feel keenly alone, expendable and under a government that does not include their interests in its agendas. Not many among the depressed and anxious care to pass a frivolous day on the links.

Anyway, it seems likely that during a move from prosperity to depression the impact will first be felt on the fringes, like public golf courses. Those that depend on customers who drive hours to get there will also give early indication of the impact of more than $60 per barrel oil (today’s price).

Part of the script

Rove public statements are on message and part of a plan.

Shakespeare's Sister has a provocative take on the Rove comments and the storm they generated. Go here for the details.

Today, the RNC issued talking points obviously constructed in support of Rove’s statement, in addition to an attack ad against Dick Durbin based on his Gitmo comments.

And so the red herring is cast ashore for all to admire.

This is their defensive play—deflect all interest in the Downing Street Documents by some controversy and force liberals to defend themselves…again.

It’s nothing but subterfuge, designed to detract from this major issue with their usual disingenuous bullshit. The Good News: This is their last line of defense against something that’s big and bothersome for them, so we’re on the right track. The Bad News: This line of defense has worked for them before and it will work again, if we don’t call them on it.

Via Majikthis

Out foxed

There are still some ripples around from the Susan Estrich/Fox news teapot tempest.

Yesterday this was posted on Talk Left

I've done legal commenting on Fox News for eight years, mostly from Denver but many times at their New York studio. I've never been paid a dime by them, although I've asked a few times. I can underscore they never, ever tell you what to say and you can say whatever you want. Their producers are top notch. They are appreciative, professional and a pleasure to interact with. I may not share the views of their anchors, but on a personal level, I like every one of them.

I've never met Roger Ailes, so I don't have anything to say there, but I think the attacks on Susan are catty and misinformed. Susan is a law professor and expert on politics and feminist issues. I don't always agree with her either - I'm far to the left of her - but the attacks on her embarrass me. Liberals need to stop eating their own.

Talk Left is a fine blog but I disagree with almost everything in this post. Even the worst people can be polite and socially gracious and characterizing Fox that way is a meaningless defense.

There is no need to “tell you what to say” because your message is not going to be heard. You are not there for an exchange of ideas, or to provide content. You are their to play a part in simple play. The Fox propaganda maestros know that in their territory when you are painted “liberal” you have no message of your own. You are a stooge in a political theater. The more earnest you appear the better it is for them.

Here’s how Rove characterized girly men liberal reactions to 9/11.

…liberals saw the savagery of the 9/11 attacks and wanted to prepare indictments and offer therapy and understanding for our attackers….

An ambitious liberal, even an eloquent and informed one, goes on Fox news, thinks he or she is making a point, is bullied, insulted, shouted down and, tail wagging, limps back for more. That simple, repeated play makes Rove’s point. Liberals are flower children, never to be entrusted with the responsibities of real power in a dangerous world. Only conservatives are strong enough to protect us.

No liberal should ever go on Fox news. But some will and will be out foxed. Being on TV is a high few ambitious egos are able to resist even though playing a part in their propaganda theater advances their message, not ours.

Lefties on Fox news embarrass me.

China Chevy to the levee

This Jim Hightower column,"Chevy's Revolting Revolution" caught my eye. I saw a version today in the Pocono Record.

...Check out Chevy's "Equinox," for example, a new SUV that's a central feature of the company's current star-spangled ad campaign. Chevrolet doesn't want you to know it, but there's not much that's American in the Equinox – it's assembled in Canada, its transmission is made in Japan, and – well, here's something revolutionary – its engine is made in China!

While General Motors has been shutting down its auto plants in Michigan, Maryland, and Ohio, it has been quietly investing more than a billion dollars in joint ventures with China's ruling elite to make cars and car parts there for export back here to the USA....

GM plans to layoff 25,000 workers in the U.S. by 2008 and blames the job loss on pension and health insurance costs. It looks like GM sees its future as being elswhere.

Now is not a good time to be an American who works.

Related Christian Science Monitor article

Made in China link

Dick Durbin

Why is it that so many Democrats can't wait to cave in? What possibly could have turned the man?

Senator Durbin, you should have held fast to the course. Your apology betrays us and encourages the crazy rightwingers.

Steve Gilliard is more forthright.

Dick

Whatever Cheney says, it’s a safe bet that the opposite is true. Yesterday, visiting Talk Left, I was reminded of the obvious: Cheney says Dean never won anything. Dean was elected Governor of Vermont five times.

And, there’s Cheney's truth forgotten statements on these issues: the “final throes” silliness, the WMD lies and all that stuff about being welcomed with bouquets from grateful Iraqis.

Or, maybe they’re not lies. Maybe Cheney's nasty ego is so inflated he actually believes that any thought he has is true simply because it is a Cheney thought.

It is amazing how far a crazy white man with a deep voice can go in this country. Even a pasty one like Cheney who is not especially bright, has few if any talents, spent most of his life shuffling papers and thinks shooting dozens of pheasants as they are released from cages is hunting.

What a country.

The big picture

If you’re in the mood to think big, here’s something to mull over, “A Future Timeline of Humanity and the Universe” which I linked to from Juan Cole’s “Cole on Knowing his Own History; and Isaiah Berlin”.

Fox fun

Here's an entertaining slugfest. DC Media Girl beats the shit out of Susan Estrich and others pile on.

DC Media Girl

Wolcott

The Sideshow (always hours ahead of most of us)

Steve Gilliard

Follow the links exercise

Go here, to Atrios, and follow the link there to the Star Tribune. Read the editorial and then go here to get Richard Durbin contact information and then send him some encouragement.

Zero

With Coke Zero, Coke has done it again. Confused me completely.

In case you haven’t seen it, Coke Zero is the new Coke in the black, vaguely goth bottle—a package where I’d expect to find an Everclear and ground glass cocktail or maybe a new launch of Mad Dog 20-20

Here’s what Coke has to say on their web site:

“Coca-Cola Zero is exactly what young adults told us they wanted—real Coca-Cola taste, zero calories and a new brand they can call their own,” said Dan Dillon, vice president Diet Portfolio, Coca-Cola North America. “Young people today do not want to compromise on flavor or calories and we think Coca-Cola Zero’s taste and personality will appeal to them.”…

From the Q & A in the press release quoted from above:

Q. What’s wrong with Diet Coke?
A. Absolutely nothing. Diet Coke is the #1 diet cola in America and continues to grow. Coca-Cola Zero will provide non users of current zero calorie colas a great tasting option.

Q. What will Coca-Cola Zero taste like?
A. It has real Coca-Cola taste, with zero calories.

I'm still confused. Except for the bottle is it the same as Diet Coke?
Zero they call it. Zero it is.

Here's some other links that young adults told us they wanted:

goth

Everclear

Mad Dog 20-20